The Cygarin Ratings have been updated......and I must say that I dread doing this week's analysis. I don't like it.
I am a self-acknowledged pragmatic, analytical guy and I am supposed to provide the analysis as the numbers indicate. This is a bad situation for me personally, and I am afraid that if I do that, I will jinx us.
I do what I can on to make Saturdays and sure I wear my gameday all cardinal game ball cap, and my gameday Cyclone socks. Hopefully that provide enough good karma to offset being jinxed. I promise that if I do jinx us I will never do the Cygarin Ratings again.
As each week progresses, the power rankings do a better job of refining who the teams we have played so far are, and of that give us a better indication of what we have done against them.
The most glaring thing that shows is that the inverted bathtub curve was in full effect once again this year, and we have once again vaulted to the top.
Ignoring ULM as an irrelevant game, the graphs show a perfect progressing step-by-step improvement from UNI to Iowa to Baylor to TCU....and then a plateau. As it stands those three games are our worst three games of the season, in exactly that order.
UNI was off the charts bad, Iowa was a touchdown underperformance, and Baylor was just one point under our current (average) performance rating, which has Iowa State power ranked 15th.
I would be satisfied with 15th for my beloved Clones any day in my entire life because that is good enough to show face against any team in the country.
But wait! There's more!......
Since Baylor, in our last three games....we have blown the socks off that 15th rating performance. Against TCU, TTU and WVU....Iowa State is averaging a (scoring) performance eleven points higher than that.
Put eleven points on top of a power ranking of 15th....Iowa State is performing at the level of a top-5 team. Even more staggering is that if we average the power ranking of these three latest teams, the average opponent's power rating is 77. That equates to a top-5 SOS in the country.
I could actually extend that one more game to include Baylor, and we are still sitting with a top-5 performance level against a top-5 strength of schedule in our last four games, albeit 3-1.
There are very few teams in the country that can go undefeated against a top-5 strength of schedule, especially with three of four games on the road. We do have to be fair, it is only four games....and none of our wins came against top-25 teams. It is not a completely validated top-5 performance, and we have to be careful about that.
Our overall SOS by the way, is 23rd in the country.
Among other ratings I follow, the Clones are a consensus 15th to 17th power rated team, with loses only to currently top-25 power rated opponents. Baylor being about a top-10 equivalent on the road.
Also, Massey has the Cyclones with a 15th power rated offense, and a 27th power rated defense. The lower defense rating does surprise just a little.
OKLAHOMA STATE
The Cowboys are power rated 24th by Sagarin, but actually a strong tad lower than that by the other ratings...ranging from 32nd to 41st against a 24th ranked strength of schedule.
Hopefully the lower ratings are more accurate, and with the Sagarin "Recent" having them ranked 38th, that could be a possibility.
I have included an OSU trend graph, and it shows the Pokes as playing remarkably consistent until the last two games, where they have trended down considerably...like two touchdowns below their current rating. Those two games were against Baylor and Tech. So that leaves the question of whether they can bounce back to their previous level of performance or not.
The rend against SOS is a slight mixed bag, but broadly shows that the downward trend applies to stronger completion as well. The exception being a "normal" performance against Texas, the best team they have played so far. But honestly, I think the Horn's rating is somewhat in question. (Kansas thinks so.)
To wrap up what I see....it looks like the Cowboys are at best what their rating indicates, and perhaps maybe not be that good against strong competition. Which if Iowa State continues it's performance, is definitely strong competition.
Interesting, and hopefully telling, is that OSU has not had a single performance this year 5 points above their current rating.
Massey has the Poke's offense power ranked 10th in the country, and their defense ranked 77th. You don't have to be a rocket surgeon to read that we are likely in for a rock'em, sock'em high scoring game.
GAME ANALYSIS
The Sagarin ratings have the Cyclone as a seven point favorite.
The Cygarin Rating analysis suggest that if we continue our trend, it suggests that we could be as much as a 18 point favorite....though the caveat to that is that our performance against Tech was down some, but still better that our current (15th) rating, so still good.
The concern I have is that OSU has a solidly ranked offense, which as I noted above suggests that they have the propensity to score a lot of points. Indeed, against Big-12 teams, the Cowboys are averaging 29 points for game. (And Kansas has not been one of their opponents.)
A high scoring game dilutes the probability of winning regardless of what the predicted margin might be, so that has to be taken into consideration, and bring the probability down some.
Needless to say...pragmatic, analytical Cygarin likes our chances, they appear to be about 70-30 on the conservative side. But like I said, a high scoring game throws that probability into question.
However, the rabbit foot in the pocket Cygarin is worried has hell he as jinxed what appears to be a good thing goin' right now. Let's just hope that bad luck is not a part of the black matter that makes up the college football universe. The refs are bad luck enough.
(In my opinion.)
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
I am a self-acknowledged pragmatic, analytical guy and I am supposed to provide the analysis as the numbers indicate. This is a bad situation for me personally, and I am afraid that if I do that, I will jinx us.
I do what I can on to make Saturdays and sure I wear my gameday all cardinal game ball cap, and my gameday Cyclone socks. Hopefully that provide enough good karma to offset being jinxed. I promise that if I do jinx us I will never do the Cygarin Ratings again.
As each week progresses, the power rankings do a better job of refining who the teams we have played so far are, and of that give us a better indication of what we have done against them.
The most glaring thing that shows is that the inverted bathtub curve was in full effect once again this year, and we have once again vaulted to the top.
Ignoring ULM as an irrelevant game, the graphs show a perfect progressing step-by-step improvement from UNI to Iowa to Baylor to TCU....and then a plateau. As it stands those three games are our worst three games of the season, in exactly that order.
UNI was off the charts bad, Iowa was a touchdown underperformance, and Baylor was just one point under our current (average) performance rating, which has Iowa State power ranked 15th.
I would be satisfied with 15th for my beloved Clones any day in my entire life because that is good enough to show face against any team in the country.
But wait! There's more!......
Since Baylor, in our last three games....we have blown the socks off that 15th rating performance. Against TCU, TTU and WVU....Iowa State is averaging a (scoring) performance eleven points higher than that.
Put eleven points on top of a power ranking of 15th....Iowa State is performing at the level of a top-5 team. Even more staggering is that if we average the power ranking of these three latest teams, the average opponent's power rating is 77. That equates to a top-5 SOS in the country.
I could actually extend that one more game to include Baylor, and we are still sitting with a top-5 performance level against a top-5 strength of schedule in our last four games, albeit 3-1.
There are very few teams in the country that can go undefeated against a top-5 strength of schedule, especially with three of four games on the road. We do have to be fair, it is only four games....and none of our wins came against top-25 teams. It is not a completely validated top-5 performance, and we have to be careful about that.
Our overall SOS by the way, is 23rd in the country.
Among other ratings I follow, the Clones are a consensus 15th to 17th power rated team, with loses only to currently top-25 power rated opponents. Baylor being about a top-10 equivalent on the road.
Also, Massey has the Cyclones with a 15th power rated offense, and a 27th power rated defense. The lower defense rating does surprise just a little.
OKLAHOMA STATE
The Cowboys are power rated 24th by Sagarin, but actually a strong tad lower than that by the other ratings...ranging from 32nd to 41st against a 24th ranked strength of schedule.
Hopefully the lower ratings are more accurate, and with the Sagarin "Recent" having them ranked 38th, that could be a possibility.
I have included an OSU trend graph, and it shows the Pokes as playing remarkably consistent until the last two games, where they have trended down considerably...like two touchdowns below their current rating. Those two games were against Baylor and Tech. So that leaves the question of whether they can bounce back to their previous level of performance or not.
The rend against SOS is a slight mixed bag, but broadly shows that the downward trend applies to stronger completion as well. The exception being a "normal" performance against Texas, the best team they have played so far. But honestly, I think the Horn's rating is somewhat in question. (Kansas thinks so.)
To wrap up what I see....it looks like the Cowboys are at best what their rating indicates, and perhaps maybe not be that good against strong competition. Which if Iowa State continues it's performance, is definitely strong competition.
Interesting, and hopefully telling, is that OSU has not had a single performance this year 5 points above their current rating.
Massey has the Poke's offense power ranked 10th in the country, and their defense ranked 77th. You don't have to be a rocket surgeon to read that we are likely in for a rock'em, sock'em high scoring game.
GAME ANALYSIS
The Sagarin ratings have the Cyclone as a seven point favorite.
The Cygarin Rating analysis suggest that if we continue our trend, it suggests that we could be as much as a 18 point favorite....though the caveat to that is that our performance against Tech was down some, but still better that our current (15th) rating, so still good.
The concern I have is that OSU has a solidly ranked offense, which as I noted above suggests that they have the propensity to score a lot of points. Indeed, against Big-12 teams, the Cowboys are averaging 29 points for game. (And Kansas has not been one of their opponents.)
A high scoring game dilutes the probability of winning regardless of what the predicted margin might be, so that has to be taken into consideration, and bring the probability down some.
Needless to say...pragmatic, analytical Cygarin likes our chances, they appear to be about 70-30 on the conservative side. But like I said, a high scoring game throws that probability into question.
However, the rabbit foot in the pocket Cygarin is worried has hell he as jinxed what appears to be a good thing goin' right now. Let's just hope that bad luck is not a part of the black matter that makes up the college football universe. The refs are bad luck enough.
(In my opinion.)
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
