BAYLOR
I'm done with the Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet update, but I don't know if I am going to have time to write up a full analysis before the Baylor game. So I will give a quick hit for that....
Baylor's has been one of the most consistent teams in the conference, playing at about the level of a team in the 25th to 30th range. The don't have wins or losses that deviate very far from that.
Indeed, their two "best" conference losses has been to Kansas and Kansas State at home, and their two best wins have been Texas Tech and Iowa State at home. Thus going 50-50 against the four best teams in the conference, albeit only at home. Otherwise, there are no rogue wins nor losses.
IOWA STATE
I think too many people hit the panic button when we lost to TCU, but that just my own opinion. The TCU game was pretty much one of rare games that has no viable explanation, that you flush and move on.
To put that in perspective, Iowa State's two absolute worst games if the season were Iowa and TCU and no other games have even been close. Both these games were underperformances by fifteen and sixteen points, and no other game against a competent team has come anywhere near that since Arizona.
SUMMARY
The Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State favored by seven points and a 74% chance of winning.
I could make a pretty good argument that spread could be stretched to nine, but I'll stick with the conservative side.
This is one of those unusual games where it would be an exceptional performance for either team for an upset to happen. For Iowa State, it would be rare. But for Baylor it would be unprecedented for the season so far.
Just the same, if there is a team that has causes matchup problems for Iowa State historically, Baylor is that team.
Lastly, that Baylor does not have an "outlier" victory or loss is indeed a statistical outlier itself. One could say that that means they are due for one. Let's hope that if that's so...they save that for when they go to Manhattan or Lawrence.
(In my opinion.)
I'm done with the Cygarin Ratings spreadsheet update, but I don't know if I am going to have time to write up a full analysis before the Baylor game. So I will give a quick hit for that....
Baylor's has been one of the most consistent teams in the conference, playing at about the level of a team in the 25th to 30th range. The don't have wins or losses that deviate very far from that.
Indeed, their two "best" conference losses has been to Kansas and Kansas State at home, and their two best wins have been Texas Tech and Iowa State at home. Thus going 50-50 against the four best teams in the conference, albeit only at home. Otherwise, there are no rogue wins nor losses.
IOWA STATE
I think too many people hit the panic button when we lost to TCU, but that just my own opinion. The TCU game was pretty much one of rare games that has no viable explanation, that you flush and move on.
To put that in perspective, Iowa State's two absolute worst games if the season were Iowa and TCU and no other games have even been close. Both these games were underperformances by fifteen and sixteen points, and no other game against a competent team has come anywhere near that since Arizona.
SUMMARY
The Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State favored by seven points and a 74% chance of winning.
I could make a pretty good argument that spread could be stretched to nine, but I'll stick with the conservative side.
This is one of those unusual games where it would be an exceptional performance for either team for an upset to happen. For Iowa State, it would be rare. But for Baylor it would be unprecedented for the season so far.
Just the same, if there is a team that has causes matchup problems for Iowa State historically, Baylor is that team.
Lastly, that Baylor does not have an "outlier" victory or loss is indeed a statistical outlier itself. One could say that that means they are due for one. Let's hope that if that's so...they save that for when they go to Manhattan or Lawrence.
(In my opinion.)
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