Iowa State’s last game of the season against the Wildcats has a lot of elements working against them, though perhaps things are a little better than Vegas perceives.
The Texas game was an under-performance, especially relative to the recent trend, and only the third time since Ohio that the Cyclones played below their rating, joining the Oklahoma and Kansas performances.
It wouldn’t have been a true under-performance though if the blocked extra point wouldn’t have occurred, which was a three-point swing. To be fair, that’s not a lot in the big scheme of things but it does add to the list of big single-play mistakes costing the team points this year.
With or without that three-point swing, Iowa State is still trending upwards overall, but against Texas they just didn’t keep up with the better trend line. If I use the trend’s average with Texas included, the trendline still suggests that we are averaging 5 to 7 points better than our current Sagarin performance rating (33rd). Using the trendline would find the Clones in the area around 15th to 20th ranked range.
That’s still pretty good, but not Texas good, and probably not Kansas State good, which are both top-10 teams, and Kansas State is on the road. The Clones are showing that they can play with top-10 teams, but probably not good enough to beat them, unless they give us some breaks. Texas certainly didn’t.
Kansas State….
Kansas State is currently power ranked 8th in the country this week, one spot above Texas. Adjusted for on the road puts them solidly in top-5 equivalent.
By all indications they the real deal. Their only blemish was against OSU at Stillwater, which is about a top-15 equivalent. They did also lose to Texas at Austin, but that would have been a top-5 equivalent opponent, and they lost by only three points. Basically, home field advantage was the difference of the game.
It is tough for even top-10 teams to beat another top-10 team on the road, both teams are usually talented and prepared, making the only difference the home field advantage. A Texas-Kansas State match-up on the CCG neutral field would be an interesting rematch.
Not unlike Iowa State, KSU has played much better since mid-season, though they started better than ISU, and are finishing stronger as well. It was about mid-season when they played their worst performance of the season against Oklahoma State. But since then they have played every one of their games above their power rating.
So as you can see, almost everything leans in favor of Kansas State right now. The Wildcats are rated notably higher, they are playing some of their best ball of the season, and they have the home field advantage. And of course you have the Wildcats playing on senior night and for a spot in the CCG. Pretty tough conditions.
The Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State as a 9 to 14 point underdog depending on whether I use their current rating or the recent trend, but I was hoping for a little bit better performance against Texas to keep the trendline more consistent.
This gives the Cyclones somewhere between a 15 and 30 percent chance of winning, the difference is whether the current “average” Iowa State team shows up, or the current upward trending one does.
15 to 30 percent are not impossible odds, and I still believe that if we play mistake free and Kansas State hands us some opportunities…Iowa State is a good enough team to take advantage of the circumstances.
I’m not expecting a win, but if Iowa State plays a great game and Kansas State gives us opportunities, it can happen.
One last thing…..
It’s been a while since we have discussed the Cygarin Theorem, which expresses that it is very difficult to have a winning record against a top-25 power rated strength of schedule unless you are a top-25 power rated team yourself.
Sagarin has Iowa State’s strength of schedule ranked 14th currently, and will get quite a boost from playing 8th ranked Kansas State. Iowa State of course is not a top-25 power rated team for the season, and was nowhere close to being one at the beginning of the season when it got it’s early losses.
This team getting to bowl eligibility against a top-14 strength of schedule despite losing to Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas….all sub-30 teams…. is a major accomplishment for this young team.
(In my opinion.)
The Texas game was an under-performance, especially relative to the recent trend, and only the third time since Ohio that the Cyclones played below their rating, joining the Oklahoma and Kansas performances.
It wouldn’t have been a true under-performance though if the blocked extra point wouldn’t have occurred, which was a three-point swing. To be fair, that’s not a lot in the big scheme of things but it does add to the list of big single-play mistakes costing the team points this year.
With or without that three-point swing, Iowa State is still trending upwards overall, but against Texas they just didn’t keep up with the better trend line. If I use the trend’s average with Texas included, the trendline still suggests that we are averaging 5 to 7 points better than our current Sagarin performance rating (33rd). Using the trendline would find the Clones in the area around 15th to 20th ranked range.
That’s still pretty good, but not Texas good, and probably not Kansas State good, which are both top-10 teams, and Kansas State is on the road. The Clones are showing that they can play with top-10 teams, but probably not good enough to beat them, unless they give us some breaks. Texas certainly didn’t.
Kansas State….
Kansas State is currently power ranked 8th in the country this week, one spot above Texas. Adjusted for on the road puts them solidly in top-5 equivalent.
By all indications they the real deal. Their only blemish was against OSU at Stillwater, which is about a top-15 equivalent. They did also lose to Texas at Austin, but that would have been a top-5 equivalent opponent, and they lost by only three points. Basically, home field advantage was the difference of the game.
It is tough for even top-10 teams to beat another top-10 team on the road, both teams are usually talented and prepared, making the only difference the home field advantage. A Texas-Kansas State match-up on the CCG neutral field would be an interesting rematch.
Not unlike Iowa State, KSU has played much better since mid-season, though they started better than ISU, and are finishing stronger as well. It was about mid-season when they played their worst performance of the season against Oklahoma State. But since then they have played every one of their games above their power rating.
So as you can see, almost everything leans in favor of Kansas State right now. The Wildcats are rated notably higher, they are playing some of their best ball of the season, and they have the home field advantage. And of course you have the Wildcats playing on senior night and for a spot in the CCG. Pretty tough conditions.
The Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State as a 9 to 14 point underdog depending on whether I use their current rating or the recent trend, but I was hoping for a little bit better performance against Texas to keep the trendline more consistent.
This gives the Cyclones somewhere between a 15 and 30 percent chance of winning, the difference is whether the current “average” Iowa State team shows up, or the current upward trending one does.
15 to 30 percent are not impossible odds, and I still believe that if we play mistake free and Kansas State hands us some opportunities…Iowa State is a good enough team to take advantage of the circumstances.
I’m not expecting a win, but if Iowa State plays a great game and Kansas State gives us opportunities, it can happen.
One last thing…..
It’s been a while since we have discussed the Cygarin Theorem, which expresses that it is very difficult to have a winning record against a top-25 power rated strength of schedule unless you are a top-25 power rated team yourself.
Sagarin has Iowa State’s strength of schedule ranked 14th currently, and will get quite a boost from playing 8th ranked Kansas State. Iowa State of course is not a top-25 power rated team for the season, and was nowhere close to being one at the beginning of the season when it got it’s early losses.
This team getting to bowl eligibility against a top-14 strength of schedule despite losing to Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas….all sub-30 teams…. is a major accomplishment for this young team.
(In my opinion.)
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