The Cygarin Ratings have been updated for the Big-12 Conference Championship game between the First Place Iowa State Cyclones and the Second Place Oklahoma Sooners.
(Boy, was THAT ever fun to type!)
I can make this easy for you if you don’t like reading….this is a toss-up game no matter how many angles it can be analyzed. Simple as that.
I can also still say that, regardless of how the game comes out…… Iowa State earned the No. 1 seeding, and owns the high ground it stands on. Arguably, even moreso than Oklahoma earned the 2nd seed.
It is Oklahoma’s burden to show that they can retake this high ground from us. They are very capable of doing that, of course. And they may very well do that. But until the do….this is our hill, and no matter what…we are the ones of conquered it. (Pickett would have been envious.)
COMMENTS ON THE BIG-12 CONFERENCE
One little nugget I want to point out….
In the ratings I have Texas ahead of Oklahoma. Not by much, and an argument could be made against it. Most power ratings have Oklahoma ahead of the Horns, and some by a clear space between them.
Putting Texas ahead is based on success against the strength of schedule with location factored in. Location matters, and because it does, even playing all the same teams does not mean two teams have identical strengths of schedules.
Oklahoma faced Texas on a neutral field, whereby ISU faced Texas on their own turf, therefore we had the tougher game. We beat Texas on road….and it took OU overtime to win on neutral turf. Iowa State had the better performance and it came against a tougher venue.
Along those lines….Texas beating OSU on the road is actually a slightly better win than OU only tying Texas in regulation on a neutral field. Indeed, OU’s best “regulation” win was TCU on the road, a win that is not as good as Texas beating OSU.
It you look at the conference chart in the spreadsheet, it makes it a little visually clearer, Texas takes it by a nose.
In the big picture of things, claiming whether Texas or Oklahoma is better is splitting hairs, and doesn’t really matter. Except from the perspective of evaluating Iowa State ……
If we consider Texas to be at least as good as Oklahoma, and the fact that we beat Texas on the road…….that gives credence that Iowa State has successfully beaten a team recently of somewhat higher caliber…. than what Oklahoma presents to us on a neutral field. (Conversely, Oklahoma doesn’t have that. )
Indeed, the Cygarin Ratings actually has Saturday's game as the third toughest game of year, behind @ Texas and @ Oklahoma State. But to be fair….it is splitting hairs. But the point is….we can handle this.
For Oklahoma….they will be facing their second toughest game of the year, one below facing Iowa State on the road.
IOWA STATE
I have been saying it for weeks now and I get to say it again…per the Cygarin Ratings, Iowa State continues to solidly trend upwards in performance. This is such a drastic contrast to all former Campbell teams.
How much better are we playing? Over our last four games, Iowa State is playing 22 points per game better than the same period last year!
Though this upwards trend actually started after a low point against Texas Tech earlier in the season, something flipped on the switch to the nitrous oxide starting at the second half of the Baylor game., and we never looked back. (Arguably it started at the start of the Baylor game, with the exception of about four plays.)
Now that we are at the end of the season, I can make a solid argument that from half-time of Baylor through West Virginia……Iowa State is playing an average performance 16 points better than their rating overall ratings. That is a lot!
Considering their current (season averaged) rating is in 8th country, then add 16 points to that........it suggest that Iowa State is playing at Alabama’s level….and about ten points better than Clemson!
(I refuse to compare to Ohio State, who has no credible resume to compare with.)
How accurate is a comparison without intra-conference play for data points? Who knows!
But there is no denying that the Cyclones are playing at a very, VERY high level….unprecedented in Iowa State history….and doing it over an established period of recent time.
To be fair, that is an average of the last four games. With all averages, they include lows. Texas stands as our recent low point and it occurred against the highest ranked team in that recent period. So that is a pretty good data point to evaluate. Against the Horns, we played three points above our current ratings….good for a performance equal to the No. 4 team in the country.
That is….our lowest performance of the last three and a half games is no worse than a top-5 performance….and it came against one of our toughest opponents, and on the road.
So, no matter how we slice it….Iowa State is clearly performing at a top-5 level during this recent trend. But just as impressive……we are playing no worse than 8th in the entire second half of the season with our worst performances at the start of the year.
So from an analysis standpoint…it would appear that it would take major Purdy/Hall caliber “oopsies” to impair our performance in the CCG game. Which, of course….is always possibility in the game of football.
OKLAHOMA
I could very easily cut and paste everything I said about Iowa State and apply it to Oklahoma. They too have been on a impressive trend of improvement since playing Iowa State.
The Sooners did not play their worst game against Iowa State…..that belongs to when they played Kansas State, which in the scope of their season’s performance was a huge anomaly, and that data point should be discarded when evaluating the Sooners.
But Iowa State was indeed their second worst game they have played, and I don’t think we will see that Oklahoma team again Saturday.
Mirroring the Cyclones, somebody flipped a switch to turn on Oklahoma’s afterburners, and starting with TCU the Sooners have been playing at a whole different level than prior….with the exception of falling off the wagon in their (as it turned out to be) last game of the regular season….beating the Bears by just three, 27-24.
As we all know, the Sooners last game of the year against @WVU was cancelled. I badly wanted that extra data point. It would have represented a data point about the same caliber as Oklahoma State and @TCU. The Sooners won both those games comfortably, and it would have been interesting to see if OU would repeat that….or instead played more poorly, as they did against Baylor. The latter outcome suggesting the OU & TCU data points as inflated.
Along that line, the Sooners’ performance against the strength of schedule has been a tad quirky. Again, against OSU and @ TCU…two decent lower top-25 equivalents, OU played lights out……far better than they did against Iowa State and Texas.
However, the Sooners played Iowa State and Texas early in the season, and have not played a top “Texas-Iowa State” caliber opponent since playing the Clones and the Horns back-to-back in the early part of their schedule.
Sooo……. that leaves the question wide open: Has Oklahoma truly “improved” substantially since Iowa State and Texas? Or are they just playing substantially better against decent…albeit not top level opponents? (Hawkeye syndrome.)
Dunno!
Getting down to numbers…….the Sooners are recently playing 18 points better than their rating (except Baylor at the end) ….which puts them nearly identical to where Iowa State is also playing.
There are though, two differences when comparing the Sooners to the Cyclones……
- OU’s recent level of performance has not been “validated” against somebody similar to Iowa State. Iowa State’s has.
- OU’s recent performance trend has been dinged by their end of year performance against Baylor. Iowa State’s wasn’t.
Is that relevant? Dunno!
THE BIG-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The final tale of the tape(s)…….
“Average rating” Iowa State versus “average rating” Oklahoma….I have the Cyclones by three.
“Season-end” Iowa State versus “season-end” Oklahoma….I have this as a toss-up.
The better team against the best (so far)…..I have Iowa State.
The most consistent “who’s going to show up lately”….the nod leans slightly Iowa State.
Who has “been there” a dozen times in the past and feels at home in Jerry World and the CCG.…. Oklahoma.
Who has never-ever “been there” before …….Iowa State.
Which of the above is relevant or most important? Dunno!
Summary….it a toss-up game.
But like I said at the beginning, we belong here. We are not just a solid contender in the Big-12 Championship game….we are a solid defender. And that all we can ask for at this elite of a venue.
Enjoy this! Win or lose! No Cyclone fan past or present has been ever blessed with experiencing this, and we just about missed having the chance.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Linky...
(Boy, was THAT ever fun to type!)
I can make this easy for you if you don’t like reading….this is a toss-up game no matter how many angles it can be analyzed. Simple as that.
I can also still say that, regardless of how the game comes out…… Iowa State earned the No. 1 seeding, and owns the high ground it stands on. Arguably, even moreso than Oklahoma earned the 2nd seed.
It is Oklahoma’s burden to show that they can retake this high ground from us. They are very capable of doing that, of course. And they may very well do that. But until the do….this is our hill, and no matter what…we are the ones of conquered it. (Pickett would have been envious.)
COMMENTS ON THE BIG-12 CONFERENCE
One little nugget I want to point out….
In the ratings I have Texas ahead of Oklahoma. Not by much, and an argument could be made against it. Most power ratings have Oklahoma ahead of the Horns, and some by a clear space between them.
Putting Texas ahead is based on success against the strength of schedule with location factored in. Location matters, and because it does, even playing all the same teams does not mean two teams have identical strengths of schedules.
Oklahoma faced Texas on a neutral field, whereby ISU faced Texas on their own turf, therefore we had the tougher game. We beat Texas on road….and it took OU overtime to win on neutral turf. Iowa State had the better performance and it came against a tougher venue.
Along those lines….Texas beating OSU on the road is actually a slightly better win than OU only tying Texas in regulation on a neutral field. Indeed, OU’s best “regulation” win was TCU on the road, a win that is not as good as Texas beating OSU.
It you look at the conference chart in the spreadsheet, it makes it a little visually clearer, Texas takes it by a nose.
In the big picture of things, claiming whether Texas or Oklahoma is better is splitting hairs, and doesn’t really matter. Except from the perspective of evaluating Iowa State ……
If we consider Texas to be at least as good as Oklahoma, and the fact that we beat Texas on the road…….that gives credence that Iowa State has successfully beaten a team recently of somewhat higher caliber…. than what Oklahoma presents to us on a neutral field. (Conversely, Oklahoma doesn’t have that. )
Indeed, the Cygarin Ratings actually has Saturday's game as the third toughest game of year, behind @ Texas and @ Oklahoma State. But to be fair….it is splitting hairs. But the point is….we can handle this.
For Oklahoma….they will be facing their second toughest game of the year, one below facing Iowa State on the road.
IOWA STATE
I have been saying it for weeks now and I get to say it again…per the Cygarin Ratings, Iowa State continues to solidly trend upwards in performance. This is such a drastic contrast to all former Campbell teams.
How much better are we playing? Over our last four games, Iowa State is playing 22 points per game better than the same period last year!
Though this upwards trend actually started after a low point against Texas Tech earlier in the season, something flipped on the switch to the nitrous oxide starting at the second half of the Baylor game., and we never looked back. (Arguably it started at the start of the Baylor game, with the exception of about four plays.)
Now that we are at the end of the season, I can make a solid argument that from half-time of Baylor through West Virginia……Iowa State is playing an average performance 16 points better than their rating overall ratings. That is a lot!
Considering their current (season averaged) rating is in 8th country, then add 16 points to that........it suggest that Iowa State is playing at Alabama’s level….and about ten points better than Clemson!
(I refuse to compare to Ohio State, who has no credible resume to compare with.)
How accurate is a comparison without intra-conference play for data points? Who knows!
But there is no denying that the Cyclones are playing at a very, VERY high level….unprecedented in Iowa State history….and doing it over an established period of recent time.
To be fair, that is an average of the last four games. With all averages, they include lows. Texas stands as our recent low point and it occurred against the highest ranked team in that recent period. So that is a pretty good data point to evaluate. Against the Horns, we played three points above our current ratings….good for a performance equal to the No. 4 team in the country.
That is….our lowest performance of the last three and a half games is no worse than a top-5 performance….and it came against one of our toughest opponents, and on the road.
So, no matter how we slice it….Iowa State is clearly performing at a top-5 level during this recent trend. But just as impressive……we are playing no worse than 8th in the entire second half of the season with our worst performances at the start of the year.
So from an analysis standpoint…it would appear that it would take major Purdy/Hall caliber “oopsies” to impair our performance in the CCG game. Which, of course….is always possibility in the game of football.
OKLAHOMA
I could very easily cut and paste everything I said about Iowa State and apply it to Oklahoma. They too have been on a impressive trend of improvement since playing Iowa State.
The Sooners did not play their worst game against Iowa State…..that belongs to when they played Kansas State, which in the scope of their season’s performance was a huge anomaly, and that data point should be discarded when evaluating the Sooners.
But Iowa State was indeed their second worst game they have played, and I don’t think we will see that Oklahoma team again Saturday.
Mirroring the Cyclones, somebody flipped a switch to turn on Oklahoma’s afterburners, and starting with TCU the Sooners have been playing at a whole different level than prior….with the exception of falling off the wagon in their (as it turned out to be) last game of the regular season….beating the Bears by just three, 27-24.
As we all know, the Sooners last game of the year against @WVU was cancelled. I badly wanted that extra data point. It would have represented a data point about the same caliber as Oklahoma State and @TCU. The Sooners won both those games comfortably, and it would have been interesting to see if OU would repeat that….or instead played more poorly, as they did against Baylor. The latter outcome suggesting the OU & TCU data points as inflated.
Along that line, the Sooners’ performance against the strength of schedule has been a tad quirky. Again, against OSU and @ TCU…two decent lower top-25 equivalents, OU played lights out……far better than they did against Iowa State and Texas.
However, the Sooners played Iowa State and Texas early in the season, and have not played a top “Texas-Iowa State” caliber opponent since playing the Clones and the Horns back-to-back in the early part of their schedule.
Sooo……. that leaves the question wide open: Has Oklahoma truly “improved” substantially since Iowa State and Texas? Or are they just playing substantially better against decent…albeit not top level opponents? (Hawkeye syndrome.)
Dunno!
Getting down to numbers…….the Sooners are recently playing 18 points better than their rating (except Baylor at the end) ….which puts them nearly identical to where Iowa State is also playing.
There are though, two differences when comparing the Sooners to the Cyclones……
- OU’s recent level of performance has not been “validated” against somebody similar to Iowa State. Iowa State’s has.
- OU’s recent performance trend has been dinged by their end of year performance against Baylor. Iowa State’s wasn’t.
Is that relevant? Dunno!
THE BIG-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The final tale of the tape(s)…….
“Average rating” Iowa State versus “average rating” Oklahoma….I have the Cyclones by three.
“Season-end” Iowa State versus “season-end” Oklahoma….I have this as a toss-up.
The better team against the best (so far)…..I have Iowa State.
The most consistent “who’s going to show up lately”….the nod leans slightly Iowa State.
Who has “been there” a dozen times in the past and feels at home in Jerry World and the CCG.…. Oklahoma.
Who has never-ever “been there” before …….Iowa State.
Which of the above is relevant or most important? Dunno!
Summary….it a toss-up game.
But like I said at the beginning, we belong here. We are not just a solid contender in the Big-12 Championship game….we are a solid defender. And that all we can ask for at this elite of a venue.
Enjoy this! Win or lose! No Cyclone fan past or present has been ever blessed with experiencing this, and we just about missed having the chance.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings Linky...
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