Before the season started I had posted that there is a crude formula that can be used to determine the anticipated win-loss record for teams that are ranked between 30th and 70th (adjusted for home field)....
Number of teams lower than 70th x 50% of teams between 30th and 70th = Number of wins (+/- one game)
Iowa State went 2-0 against teams lower than 70th, and 1-1 against teams between 30th and 70th.
All of Iowa State's losses came to teams rated higher than 30th in the country.
This is really a simple matter of crudely applying the bell curve. Teams between 30th and 70th are close enough in strength they average out to toss-up games.
Teams above or below this are teams that would fall into the should or should not win or lose category, give or take about a game.
The irony is that Iowa State came one fumble from beating every sub-30 team on their schedule.
Take that, and one missed field goal, and Iowa State legitimately would have been a perfectly placed, low top-30 power ranked team.
Number of teams lower than 70th x 50% of teams between 30th and 70th = Number of wins (+/- one game)
Iowa State went 2-0 against teams lower than 70th, and 1-1 against teams between 30th and 70th.
All of Iowa State's losses came to teams rated higher than 30th in the country.
This is really a simple matter of crudely applying the bell curve. Teams between 30th and 70th are close enough in strength they average out to toss-up games.
Teams above or below this are teams that would fall into the should or should not win or lose category, give or take about a game.
The irony is that Iowa State came one fumble from beating every sub-30 team on their schedule.
Take that, and one missed field goal, and Iowa State legitimately would have been a perfectly placed, low top-30 power ranked team.
