The Cygarin Ratings has been updated. I am just about wetting my knickers wanting to jump further ahead than I dare at this time. So instead, I am going to be much more brief than I would like to be, but in that brevity I do want to suggest what things might be turning into. But a lot has yet to play out.
First let's talk about the Kansas game and get that out of the way.....
Kansas is currently ranked 138th by Sagarin and 130th by Massey. Kansas is, in both ranking systems, the worst team that the Cygarin Ratings follows this year, which includes all the Big-12, Big-10, as well as the teams that both Iowa and Iowa State play. That's pretty bad, even for typical Kansas teams.
I'm not going to go back to do the research, but I am pretty sure that in the past I found that Iowa State has lost to sub-130 teams only four times in history. Ever! Even in the ugly years!
And not to bring up bad memories...but I'm pretty sure the Gene Chizik had two of the four.
Regardless (though this is not a final season ranking so the ranking could change)...should Iowa State lose Saturday....this would be one of the most epic losses in Iowa State history just one week after one of it's most epic wins. That's a back-to-back low probability that I really don't want to calculate, and hopefully not one that will need to figure out.
Granted, as a couple here have pointed out, Kansas has had it's moments. But it has not has it's moment of results. Their losses include pretty good drubbings by 102nd Ohio, and 127th Central Michigan. Their lone win has been against 273rd SE Missouri State, which interestingly enough was almost exactly the expected spread of that game based on their respective rankings.
They got pummeled by Texas Tech 19-65, and had a more respectable 22 point loss to West Virginia. (Which, I have suspicions about WVU this year.) In a nutshell, there is a lot of results to validate their low rating.
Summarily the Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State as a 28 point favorite, and that carries a 97% chance of winning the game.
Now, for stuff that's more juicy....
Let me first start by stating that Texas has risen to 24th in the power rankings, and that even factors in their loss to Maryland. I have been saying for a while now that I think that Texas is a solid top-25 team. I think their rating is going to continue to rise.
The second thing I want to suggest is a little tougher to swallow. Iowa is currently power ranked 29th, and their rating just may continue to rise. (But I will have more on that at some other time.)
So.....we just beat top-10 Oklahoma on the road, lost to top-25 Texas, and lost to top-30 Iowa in an overtime game. So....we are 1-1-1 in regulation against teams in the top-30 range, most notably with a top-10 win on the road.
I think there is a consensus of Iowa State fans that Texas was a debacle of a performance, and all of us would love to have a redo of the Iowa game. We arguably should have beaten Iowa even playing badly as we did.
Are the power ratings suggesting that Iowa State is playing at or near a top-25 caliber? The Cygarin Ratings are suggesting that is entirely plausible. Note the following....
1. Every week I have disclosed that I have adjusted Iowa State's ranking up over Sagarin's ranking because the performance graphs suggest that Sagarin is undervaluing Iowa State relative to its season performance. And Iowa State just keeps creeping up.....I now have Iowa State up to 39th.
2. What were perceived to be loses to must-win "mediocre" Iowa and Texas teams are now looking like they perhaps are losses to teams better than originally perceived.
To be fair, I am still not convinced about Iowa's ranking. It stands highly invalidated. But for the sake this moment's argument, it is very plausible that Iowa is indeed better than I have been willing to give them credit for.
So, Iowa State's performances against Texas and Iowa, albeit in losing, are perhaps a better performances and are better losses than we have been willing to let ourselves think.
3. Take a look at Iowa State's performance chart and look at the trend!
Mostly because of the power ranking's previous view of Texas and Iowa as being average, Iowa State's previous season performance trend had been staying flat. I had been expressing that Iowa State had not improved any from last year. And for that matter, I suggest don't expect anything better.
However.... as the season progresses, Texas and Iowa are being perceived as more formidable foes. And as a direct result of that....so has Iowa State's. Most importantly, the chart shows that Iowa State is trending quite steadily upward since the season began!
Looking at the trend line I drew it the chart, I have rather conservatively shown that we may possibly be playing five points better right now than Iowa State's season-long average. And five points better puts Iowa State in the caliber of playing like a top-30 team.
But, I could every easily have followed the trend as it goes directly from UNI through Iowa and then through Akron, which you will notice is a perfect straight line, and then follow that through to where it intersects the line leading up to Oklahoma. That trend ignores Texas as an outlier bad game....and that trend would put us solid in the top-25.
Is it possible? Yes possible, but far from a proven. But a girl can have high hopes, right?
At this time, the big question is...which game was the greater outlier? The Texas low, or the Oklahoma high? Either....or both...stand out as such. But right now, Texas appears to be a singular conflict with the constant trend, whereby Oklahoma looks like an exaggeration of the trend of the upward trend.
If it turns out that Texas was a bad, rogue game....then there is some potential fun to be had going forward.
I could spend a lot of time looking forward to what we have to face, especially Texas Tech and West Virginia...who both have very invalidated rankings similar to Iowa. Assuming we get past Kansas, another week of data will help considerably with the analysis.
As I said about this topic in another post....I don't want to get too far out over my skis. The data looks promising, but I'm not sold on the accuracy of data just yet. And even then, it's still a tough road to haul.
Let's get past Kansas first.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
First let's talk about the Kansas game and get that out of the way.....
Kansas is currently ranked 138th by Sagarin and 130th by Massey. Kansas is, in both ranking systems, the worst team that the Cygarin Ratings follows this year, which includes all the Big-12, Big-10, as well as the teams that both Iowa and Iowa State play. That's pretty bad, even for typical Kansas teams.
I'm not going to go back to do the research, but I am pretty sure that in the past I found that Iowa State has lost to sub-130 teams only four times in history. Ever! Even in the ugly years!
And not to bring up bad memories...but I'm pretty sure the Gene Chizik had two of the four.
Regardless (though this is not a final season ranking so the ranking could change)...should Iowa State lose Saturday....this would be one of the most epic losses in Iowa State history just one week after one of it's most epic wins. That's a back-to-back low probability that I really don't want to calculate, and hopefully not one that will need to figure out.
Granted, as a couple here have pointed out, Kansas has had it's moments. But it has not has it's moment of results. Their losses include pretty good drubbings by 102nd Ohio, and 127th Central Michigan. Their lone win has been against 273rd SE Missouri State, which interestingly enough was almost exactly the expected spread of that game based on their respective rankings.
They got pummeled by Texas Tech 19-65, and had a more respectable 22 point loss to West Virginia. (Which, I have suspicions about WVU this year.) In a nutshell, there is a lot of results to validate their low rating.
Summarily the Cygarin Ratings has Iowa State as a 28 point favorite, and that carries a 97% chance of winning the game.
Now, for stuff that's more juicy....
Let me first start by stating that Texas has risen to 24th in the power rankings, and that even factors in their loss to Maryland. I have been saying for a while now that I think that Texas is a solid top-25 team. I think their rating is going to continue to rise.
The second thing I want to suggest is a little tougher to swallow. Iowa is currently power ranked 29th, and their rating just may continue to rise. (But I will have more on that at some other time.)
So.....we just beat top-10 Oklahoma on the road, lost to top-25 Texas, and lost to top-30 Iowa in an overtime game. So....we are 1-1-1 in regulation against teams in the top-30 range, most notably with a top-10 win on the road.
I think there is a consensus of Iowa State fans that Texas was a debacle of a performance, and all of us would love to have a redo of the Iowa game. We arguably should have beaten Iowa even playing badly as we did.
Are the power ratings suggesting that Iowa State is playing at or near a top-25 caliber? The Cygarin Ratings are suggesting that is entirely plausible. Note the following....
1. Every week I have disclosed that I have adjusted Iowa State's ranking up over Sagarin's ranking because the performance graphs suggest that Sagarin is undervaluing Iowa State relative to its season performance. And Iowa State just keeps creeping up.....I now have Iowa State up to 39th.
2. What were perceived to be loses to must-win "mediocre" Iowa and Texas teams are now looking like they perhaps are losses to teams better than originally perceived.
To be fair, I am still not convinced about Iowa's ranking. It stands highly invalidated. But for the sake this moment's argument, it is very plausible that Iowa is indeed better than I have been willing to give them credit for.
So, Iowa State's performances against Texas and Iowa, albeit in losing, are perhaps a better performances and are better losses than we have been willing to let ourselves think.
3. Take a look at Iowa State's performance chart and look at the trend!
Mostly because of the power ranking's previous view of Texas and Iowa as being average, Iowa State's previous season performance trend had been staying flat. I had been expressing that Iowa State had not improved any from last year. And for that matter, I suggest don't expect anything better.
However.... as the season progresses, Texas and Iowa are being perceived as more formidable foes. And as a direct result of that....so has Iowa State's. Most importantly, the chart shows that Iowa State is trending quite steadily upward since the season began!
Looking at the trend line I drew it the chart, I have rather conservatively shown that we may possibly be playing five points better right now than Iowa State's season-long average. And five points better puts Iowa State in the caliber of playing like a top-30 team.
But, I could every easily have followed the trend as it goes directly from UNI through Iowa and then through Akron, which you will notice is a perfect straight line, and then follow that through to where it intersects the line leading up to Oklahoma. That trend ignores Texas as an outlier bad game....and that trend would put us solid in the top-25.
Is it possible? Yes possible, but far from a proven. But a girl can have high hopes, right?
At this time, the big question is...which game was the greater outlier? The Texas low, or the Oklahoma high? Either....or both...stand out as such. But right now, Texas appears to be a singular conflict with the constant trend, whereby Oklahoma looks like an exaggeration of the trend of the upward trend.
If it turns out that Texas was a bad, rogue game....then there is some potential fun to be had going forward.
I could spend a lot of time looking forward to what we have to face, especially Texas Tech and West Virginia...who both have very invalidated rankings similar to Iowa. Assuming we get past Kansas, another week of data will help considerably with the analysis.
As I said about this topic in another post....I don't want to get too far out over my skis. The data looks promising, but I'm not sold on the accuracy of data just yet. And even then, it's still a tough road to haul.
Let's get past Kansas first.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINFOOTBALL.xlsx
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