The Cygarin Basketball Ratings are now updated, and boy am I going to take some heat from some of you. Just please remember that my role with the Cygarin Ratings is to offer what I think the analysis indicates without any prejudice of the eye test. The analysis is what at is, and it may very well be wrong.
The skinny is this...there are solid reasons to suggest that both Kansas State an Baylor have better chances to win the conference than Kansas and Iowa State. Indeed, there are indications that suggest the Baylor is the team to beat in the conference race, and that Iowa State could end up 4th or 5th in the conference.
That said...there are solid reasons to think otherwise too. So anybody with any opinion has just as much basis for being right or wrong.
The grand sum total of it all is that that this isn't just merely dead even race to the conference title between four (or five) teams....but that between now and then there are going likely to be several lead changes. Unless....certain teams can crack the whip and charge to the finish line.....and/or.....certain team or teams start fade down the stretch. One thing is for sure, we are nowhere near the finish line yet.
To each his opinion….but I don't see a clue yet to which team has the propensity to do either one. Indeed, I think the conference winner this year could very well do so with six or seven losses....and there could very well be a huge tie-breaker battle.
IOWA STATE.
The power rankings are nearly in consensus (with the polls) that Iowa State is about a 15th ranked team, plus or minus a couple.
Everything about their performance margin-wise suggests not only that to be true, it's even on the conservative side. I have Iowa State as actually playing on average about three points better than that.
The problem is that the Cyclones have not turned those "good" performances into top-15 caliber victories against @ Kansas, @ Baylor, and most especially KSU at home. All the good performances in the world are moot if you come up just short.
Sooner or later Iowa State has got to earn their ranking by winning if they are going to win the conference title. To be fair, that is no different than any other contender in the conference either.
BAYLOR AND KANSAS STATE
This is going to shock some people when this comes out of my keyboard...but too many people are focused on the KSU's and Baylor's NET and Kenpom rankings (or any other). Neither of those two ranking systems look at the recent trends. (Just ask Nebraska.) These two teams are NOT playing according to their pre-conference ranking, it is as simple as that.
I have said many times that these two teams have the two best conference resumes to date, and they are going to have to stub their toes for them not to take 1st and 2nd in the conference. To be fair it will not take much of stub, but the point is they are minimally just as much contenders for the race as Iowa State and Kansas are, if not a tad more.
And of the two, Baylor has my respect more than Kansas State does. Yet nobody wants to give them much credit. Sagarin Recent has Baylor power ranked 8th in the country, tops in the Big-12, and my assessment of their conference play supports that.
Interestingly though, IF Kansas State and Baylor are that much better than we thought.....then those two losses...which we all tend to agree we let the get away from us.....suggest that Iowa State is better than our own record shows, too.
And that is the circular conundrum that the Big-12 race is in right now. It is hard to tell what are considered quality opponents, quality wins, quality losses....and what that means for the rest of the conference race.
To summarize (and being redundant).....there is no way that there is a favorite to win the conference. There are four (or five ) teams that are in a dead heat. Texas Tech is not out if it either but they are trending that way.
Iowa State has just as much chance to finish 4th or 5th as they do first. And that's a little sobering.
OKLAHOMA
So, all that out of the way, we have a game tonight....
Oklahoma is the opposite of Baylor and KSU, in that they have not played nearly up to their power ranking in conference. The Sooners are ranked a respectable 23rd by Sagarin, but a lowly 82nd in Sagarin Recent.
If I was to call this one straight up per the power rankings, I would call this one a one point favorite for the Sooners.
But, I think that is being gratuitous to the Sooners. I would give Iowa State about five points more than that, so I would call it about four in favor of the Clones, about a 65 percent chance of winning.
I would also suggest that Iowa State is showing better than their ranking too, so if we want to be optimistic, a plus-5 victory to a conference team on the road would be a promising sign.
On the other hand, this is still a toss-up game, and it is one of THOSE games that a conference contender cannot afford to blink, and this is going to be a very blinkable conference road game.
SOMEBODY in the race is going to blink...let's just hope it is not us tonight.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Basketball Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINBASKETBALL.xlsx
The skinny is this...there are solid reasons to suggest that both Kansas State an Baylor have better chances to win the conference than Kansas and Iowa State. Indeed, there are indications that suggest the Baylor is the team to beat in the conference race, and that Iowa State could end up 4th or 5th in the conference.
That said...there are solid reasons to think otherwise too. So anybody with any opinion has just as much basis for being right or wrong.
The grand sum total of it all is that that this isn't just merely dead even race to the conference title between four (or five) teams....but that between now and then there are going likely to be several lead changes. Unless....certain teams can crack the whip and charge to the finish line.....and/or.....certain team or teams start fade down the stretch. One thing is for sure, we are nowhere near the finish line yet.
To each his opinion….but I don't see a clue yet to which team has the propensity to do either one. Indeed, I think the conference winner this year could very well do so with six or seven losses....and there could very well be a huge tie-breaker battle.
IOWA STATE.
The power rankings are nearly in consensus (with the polls) that Iowa State is about a 15th ranked team, plus or minus a couple.
Everything about their performance margin-wise suggests not only that to be true, it's even on the conservative side. I have Iowa State as actually playing on average about three points better than that.
The problem is that the Cyclones have not turned those "good" performances into top-15 caliber victories against @ Kansas, @ Baylor, and most especially KSU at home. All the good performances in the world are moot if you come up just short.
Sooner or later Iowa State has got to earn their ranking by winning if they are going to win the conference title. To be fair, that is no different than any other contender in the conference either.
BAYLOR AND KANSAS STATE
This is going to shock some people when this comes out of my keyboard...but too many people are focused on the KSU's and Baylor's NET and Kenpom rankings (or any other). Neither of those two ranking systems look at the recent trends. (Just ask Nebraska.) These two teams are NOT playing according to their pre-conference ranking, it is as simple as that.
I have said many times that these two teams have the two best conference resumes to date, and they are going to have to stub their toes for them not to take 1st and 2nd in the conference. To be fair it will not take much of stub, but the point is they are minimally just as much contenders for the race as Iowa State and Kansas are, if not a tad more.
And of the two, Baylor has my respect more than Kansas State does. Yet nobody wants to give them much credit. Sagarin Recent has Baylor power ranked 8th in the country, tops in the Big-12, and my assessment of their conference play supports that.
Interestingly though, IF Kansas State and Baylor are that much better than we thought.....then those two losses...which we all tend to agree we let the get away from us.....suggest that Iowa State is better than our own record shows, too.
And that is the circular conundrum that the Big-12 race is in right now. It is hard to tell what are considered quality opponents, quality wins, quality losses....and what that means for the rest of the conference race.
To summarize (and being redundant).....there is no way that there is a favorite to win the conference. There are four (or five ) teams that are in a dead heat. Texas Tech is not out if it either but they are trending that way.
Iowa State has just as much chance to finish 4th or 5th as they do first. And that's a little sobering.
OKLAHOMA
So, all that out of the way, we have a game tonight....
Oklahoma is the opposite of Baylor and KSU, in that they have not played nearly up to their power ranking in conference. The Sooners are ranked a respectable 23rd by Sagarin, but a lowly 82nd in Sagarin Recent.
If I was to call this one straight up per the power rankings, I would call this one a one point favorite for the Sooners.
But, I think that is being gratuitous to the Sooners. I would give Iowa State about five points more than that, so I would call it about four in favor of the Clones, about a 65 percent chance of winning.
I would also suggest that Iowa State is showing better than their ranking too, so if we want to be optimistic, a plus-5 victory to a conference team on the road would be a promising sign.
On the other hand, this is still a toss-up game, and it is one of THOSE games that a conference contender cannot afford to blink, and this is going to be a very blinkable conference road game.
SOMEBODY in the race is going to blink...let's just hope it is not us tonight.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Basketball Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINBASKETBALL.xlsx
