The Cygarin Basketball Ratings has been updated. Doing this right after a thugging of Thuggins may be bad timing.
We are at that point in the season where there is lots speculate on, but also lots that remains unresolved.
Let's look at Iowa State first....
The Cyclone's are a near consensus power rating 15th ranked team, plus or minus about a spot. There is a lot supporting that, mostly with how Iowa State has performed against sub-25 teams, but also a couple of solid wins against Kansas and Texas Tech.
The part the concerns me though, is Iowa's State's limited amount of success in the top-35 equivalent range (2-3), but also the Clones two losses in the sub-50 range (KSU and Arizona).
That last part is an observation that deserves criticism: Arizona was a long time ago and different condtions, and KSU is almost assuredly much better than their current rating.
That's said, Iowa State has trended very steady, and it is clear that since Kansas State the Cyclones are indicating a serious trend up. Even the Kansas road loss was a top-15 performance, and other games have been better performing than that.
For the record, I don't consider Ole Miss a "quality" win. I don't think they are anywhere near a top-20 team. But Iowa State's performance against them was a thing of beauty. (Note: I just noticed that I have us playing Ole Miss on a neutral court. I need to fix that.)
Summarily…… just like everybody else, I think Iowa State passes the "eye test", and the power rankings support that this is a top-15 team that is rising. However, when it comes to actually solidly winning in the top-20 regime.....Iowa State is far from validated yet.
The caveat to that observation though….is there is LOT of that going on in the entire country, so not being validated yet is a story for many others too, and therefore it is not an "invalidation" of Iowa State.
Conference race.....
I have noted before that this is at least a four horse race, and maybe even five. I honestly don't think there is a favorite that stands out from the rest yet.
Furthermore, there are three teams that I don't think can win the conference, but they are fully capable of knocking out contenders from the race...and even end up being in the top-four by the end of the season.
Kansas State has the lowest power ranking of the contenders, but they have the best conference resume to date. Not only can they not be ruled out, they can be considered a prohibitive favorite based on conference performance to date.
Iowa State has the power ranking to make them a prohibitive favorite in that regard, and their recent performance has them getting better. But they need to get the wins in a regime that they are currently only 2-2 in conference so far.
Kansas is clearly not the Kansas of past. But they still have the best power rating in the conference, and still are playing pretty much at their rating. I think the question is going to be if other teams turn out to be better than Kansas, not whether Kansas is worse than their rating.
Texas Tech is faltering in the upper half of the strength of schedule. But they have played one of the easiest conference schedules to date, and still have a lot of opportunity to show that the can perform good enough to win the conference.
Baylor, do not rule them out from being able to win the conference. This is the one contending team that does not have a "bad" conference loss yet, whereby all the other contenders do. And they are not far behind KSU in upper half conference wins. This is a team that is being dangerously underestimated.
Texas is likely a team that does not look like it can win the conference. But it is a team that appears to be able to beat any team in the conference on any give day. Ask Kansas and Kansas State. They may not win the conference, but they could very well end up in the top four.
So far, Oklahoma State and TCU appear over rated in the power rating. West Virginia and Oklahoma State appear to have the last two spots in the conference solidly in hand.
That's about it.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Basketball Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINBASKETBALL.xlsx
We are at that point in the season where there is lots speculate on, but also lots that remains unresolved.
Let's look at Iowa State first....
The Cyclone's are a near consensus power rating 15th ranked team, plus or minus about a spot. There is a lot supporting that, mostly with how Iowa State has performed against sub-25 teams, but also a couple of solid wins against Kansas and Texas Tech.
The part the concerns me though, is Iowa's State's limited amount of success in the top-35 equivalent range (2-3), but also the Clones two losses in the sub-50 range (KSU and Arizona).
That last part is an observation that deserves criticism: Arizona was a long time ago and different condtions, and KSU is almost assuredly much better than their current rating.
That's said, Iowa State has trended very steady, and it is clear that since Kansas State the Cyclones are indicating a serious trend up. Even the Kansas road loss was a top-15 performance, and other games have been better performing than that.
For the record, I don't consider Ole Miss a "quality" win. I don't think they are anywhere near a top-20 team. But Iowa State's performance against them was a thing of beauty. (Note: I just noticed that I have us playing Ole Miss on a neutral court. I need to fix that.)
Summarily…… just like everybody else, I think Iowa State passes the "eye test", and the power rankings support that this is a top-15 team that is rising. However, when it comes to actually solidly winning in the top-20 regime.....Iowa State is far from validated yet.
The caveat to that observation though….is there is LOT of that going on in the entire country, so not being validated yet is a story for many others too, and therefore it is not an "invalidation" of Iowa State.
Conference race.....
I have noted before that this is at least a four horse race, and maybe even five. I honestly don't think there is a favorite that stands out from the rest yet.
Furthermore, there are three teams that I don't think can win the conference, but they are fully capable of knocking out contenders from the race...and even end up being in the top-four by the end of the season.
Kansas State has the lowest power ranking of the contenders, but they have the best conference resume to date. Not only can they not be ruled out, they can be considered a prohibitive favorite based on conference performance to date.
Iowa State has the power ranking to make them a prohibitive favorite in that regard, and their recent performance has them getting better. But they need to get the wins in a regime that they are currently only 2-2 in conference so far.
Kansas is clearly not the Kansas of past. But they still have the best power rating in the conference, and still are playing pretty much at their rating. I think the question is going to be if other teams turn out to be better than Kansas, not whether Kansas is worse than their rating.
Texas Tech is faltering in the upper half of the strength of schedule. But they have played one of the easiest conference schedules to date, and still have a lot of opportunity to show that the can perform good enough to win the conference.
Baylor, do not rule them out from being able to win the conference. This is the one contending team that does not have a "bad" conference loss yet, whereby all the other contenders do. And they are not far behind KSU in upper half conference wins. This is a team that is being dangerously underestimated.
Texas is likely a team that does not look like it can win the conference. But it is a team that appears to be able to beat any team in the conference on any give day. Ask Kansas and Kansas State. They may not win the conference, but they could very well end up in the top four.
So far, Oklahoma State and TCU appear over rated in the power rating. West Virginia and Oklahoma State appear to have the last two spots in the conference solidly in hand.
That's about it.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Basketball Ratings link....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/cygarin/CYGARINBASKETBALL.xlsx
