The Cygarin Basketball Ratings has been updated.
And now for UAB......
UAB is power ranked 144th by Sagarin and 117th by Massey. On average I would say that Massey is the more accurate of the two, but UAB is one of those teams that hasn't been very consistent, so averaging can be a little hard to do. And for that matter, there really isn't a whole lot of difference strength-wise between 117th and 144th.
The thing that concerns me just a little is that the Blazers have had some decent wins relative to their own rating. That includes a win over 95th Old Dominion and 87th LA Tech.
Don't get me wrong, those aren't NCAA resume builder wins, but if they can play in the 85 to 95 power ranking range.....it means they aren't Sister's of the Poor, at least some of the time. That puts them in the range of Texas Tech on the road, and we know how that turned out.
On the other hand they have had some very bad loses, including eight losses to teams ranked anywhere from 100th to below 400th.
But, some of their loses to top-100 teams have been surprisingly respectable, such as a 9 point losses to LSU and Florida.
The Cygarin Ratngs has this game as a 16 point spread, and 92% probability of winning. It would most certainly be our worst loss of the year, four points worse that Texas Tech on the road.
It is worth noting that Iowa State has played bad enough twice this season to lose to UAB, Texas Tech (17 under) is the obvious one, and Southern U (18 under) being the other. Though a ten point win over Southern despite an 18 point under -performance can probably be discarded.
If you really want to know....UAB is rated almost identical to a team who's name I will not mention.
If you want to know about Davidson.....
Davidson is ranked 30th in the Sagarin Ratings, and 43 by Massey. But I am a little intrigued by their rating.
They deserve a full tip of the hat for beating 31st ranked Virginia Commonwealth at home, but they lost the other two games to VCU by 20 and 27 points respectively, making the win a pretty sizable outlier.
Personally, I think that Davidson is ranked a tad too high, and I think they are seeded too high as well. I would put them in the range of about 50th, which means I would have seeded them about 12th.
What that means for Iowa's chances....I don't know. They fall right in the range of the Northwestern, Penn State, and Syracuse road losses, and better than the Minnesota, or Penn State (tournament) losses.
That having been said, Iowa has played profoundly better since their back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Northwestern....right up until they laid an egg against Penn State in the tourney.
So it just comes down to which Iowa team shows up, but odds still stand in Iowa's favor. I'd say it's about a 60-40 chance of Iowa showing up. I guess I see this as a game where Iowa either blasts Davidson out of the arena, or they flop and lose.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Basketball Ratings
And now for UAB......
UAB is power ranked 144th by Sagarin and 117th by Massey. On average I would say that Massey is the more accurate of the two, but UAB is one of those teams that hasn't been very consistent, so averaging can be a little hard to do. And for that matter, there really isn't a whole lot of difference strength-wise between 117th and 144th.
The thing that concerns me just a little is that the Blazers have had some decent wins relative to their own rating. That includes a win over 95th Old Dominion and 87th LA Tech.
Don't get me wrong, those aren't NCAA resume builder wins, but if they can play in the 85 to 95 power ranking range.....it means they aren't Sister's of the Poor, at least some of the time. That puts them in the range of Texas Tech on the road, and we know how that turned out.
On the other hand they have had some very bad loses, including eight losses to teams ranked anywhere from 100th to below 400th.
But, some of their loses to top-100 teams have been surprisingly respectable, such as a 9 point losses to LSU and Florida.
The Cygarin Ratngs has this game as a 16 point spread, and 92% probability of winning. It would most certainly be our worst loss of the year, four points worse that Texas Tech on the road.
It is worth noting that Iowa State has played bad enough twice this season to lose to UAB, Texas Tech (17 under) is the obvious one, and Southern U (18 under) being the other. Though a ten point win over Southern despite an 18 point under -performance can probably be discarded.
If you really want to know....UAB is rated almost identical to a team who's name I will not mention.
If you want to know about Davidson.....
Davidson is ranked 30th in the Sagarin Ratings, and 43 by Massey. But I am a little intrigued by their rating.
They deserve a full tip of the hat for beating 31st ranked Virginia Commonwealth at home, but they lost the other two games to VCU by 20 and 27 points respectively, making the win a pretty sizable outlier.
Personally, I think that Davidson is ranked a tad too high, and I think they are seeded too high as well. I would put them in the range of about 50th, which means I would have seeded them about 12th.
What that means for Iowa's chances....I don't know. They fall right in the range of the Northwestern, Penn State, and Syracuse road losses, and better than the Minnesota, or Penn State (tournament) losses.
That having been said, Iowa has played profoundly better since their back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Northwestern....right up until they laid an egg against Penn State in the tourney.
So it just comes down to which Iowa team shows up, but odds still stand in Iowa's favor. I'd say it's about a 60-40 chance of Iowa showing up. I guess I see this as a game where Iowa either blasts Davidson out of the arena, or they flop and lose.
(In my opinion.)
Cygarin Basketball Ratings
