Not to pick on you Psyclone, but I want to show how misleading statistics can be portrayed. Not just you, but especially the media. A few days ago, you made the following comment and we had a converation about it....
"Currently the 14 day trend is up 42% from the low less than two weeks ago. That trend, along with higher positive cases regardless of the reason, is what has me increasingly concerned about pulling off football this fall."
What was lost was that a 42% increase of nearly nothing is still not much, if it was even true, which it was not.
The trend you were talking about was deaths and I challenged you about the 42%, which was up from something like 3.8 to 5.1-ish.
As of today, the trend line slope of deaths per day has almost perfectly flat-lined since June 6th at a nearly perfect 3.26 deaths per day.
That is compared to a smoothed curve peak of nearly 14 per day only a month before, reaching daily highs of 18 to 19.
The last ten days is showing a drastic slope downward from a (temporary jump of) six per day to zero. Probably this is due to missing data, but it will take a LOT of missing data to indicate deaths are back on the way up. Doubtful this is the case.
The point being...there is no 42 percent increase over the last two weeks. There is no increase at all. This is true throughout the entire country. The trend continues down.
But...the media picks little daily insignicant nuggets such as the one you did....gets everyone worked up and hyperventilating.
It is a statistically false report....but once planted....they go find another false statistic someplace else so that they can keep people in a false state of panic.
Remember a couple of weeks ago the reports that "non-social distancing" Wisconsin is seeing a second wave of Covid? Nerp! Crickets since then because it was a false report based on a prettly little localized irrelevant nuggets.
But nobody goes back and corrects those false reports. Instead new ones are added to make it look like the probom is compounding, when just the opposite is true.
Somebody should be reporting some "good new" statistics that are real.....but they aren't and they won't.
Bottom line....let's play some football.
(In my opinion.)
"Currently the 14 day trend is up 42% from the low less than two weeks ago. That trend, along with higher positive cases regardless of the reason, is what has me increasingly concerned about pulling off football this fall."
What was lost was that a 42% increase of nearly nothing is still not much, if it was even true, which it was not.
The trend you were talking about was deaths and I challenged you about the 42%, which was up from something like 3.8 to 5.1-ish.
As of today, the trend line slope of deaths per day has almost perfectly flat-lined since June 6th at a nearly perfect 3.26 deaths per day.
That is compared to a smoothed curve peak of nearly 14 per day only a month before, reaching daily highs of 18 to 19.
The last ten days is showing a drastic slope downward from a (temporary jump of) six per day to zero. Probably this is due to missing data, but it will take a LOT of missing data to indicate deaths are back on the way up. Doubtful this is the case.
The point being...there is no 42 percent increase over the last two weeks. There is no increase at all. This is true throughout the entire country. The trend continues down.
But...the media picks little daily insignicant nuggets such as the one you did....gets everyone worked up and hyperventilating.
It is a statistically false report....but once planted....they go find another false statistic someplace else so that they can keep people in a false state of panic.
Remember a couple of weeks ago the reports that "non-social distancing" Wisconsin is seeing a second wave of Covid? Nerp! Crickets since then because it was a false report based on a prettly little localized irrelevant nuggets.
But nobody goes back and corrects those false reports. Instead new ones are added to make it look like the probom is compounding, when just the opposite is true.
Somebody should be reporting some "good new" statistics that are real.....but they aren't and they won't.
Bottom line....let's play some football.
(In my opinion.)
