I was going to wait until basketball was completely over before discussing football, but I need a little personal distraction from work right now, and figured the board could use it too. It's getting a little slow around here.
So here is a list of Iowa State and Iowa's opponent's power rankings adjusted for home field advantage. All are based on last year's final rankings, with the exception of Iowa State.
For Iowa State, for sake of argument, I rated them at the power ranking that puts them just above the six teams they need to win to become bowl eligible.
Make note though, that is not the same thing as saying that they have 50-50 chance at six wins. Indeed, that is a quite a bit higher. That's a discussion for another day.
This little exercise is primarily to show the disparity between a team that has a top-10 strength of schedule, and one of our other P-5 non-conference foes who doesn't, and why it is relevant.
Iowa State in bold.
The key issue that I am trying to make is to identify for each team their "virtual unwinnable" games, "virtual win" games, and the remainder that are toss-up games.
These parameters will do well to identity each team's most possible wins, least possible wins.. and the high-low for most likely win range for the season.
Feel free decide yourself where Iowa State lies in the power ratings (made easy by noting ranking range).... go down the list.....and identify them yourself what the win range for each team is.
And if you wish, feel free to adjust any and all teams up or down from last year's final ranking.
Just remember...toss-up games almost always result in being split roughly 50-50 in real play. Anything within about 6 points is essentially a toss-up game.
Here goes and have fun! Feel free to post your own predicted record........
96.61 TCU
95
94
93.62 @ Baylor
92
91
90
89
88__________________________^ Top-10 equivalent
87.44 @ Kansas State
86
85
84.48 @ Oklahoma
84.02 @ Nebraska
83.89 @ Wisconsin__________________________^ Top-25 equivalent
81.81 @ West Virginia
80
79
78.
77
76__________________________^ Top-40 equivalent
75
74
73.50 @ Iowa State
73.35 Minnesota
72.34 @ Northwestern__________________________^Top-50 equivalent
72.14 Illinois State
71.05 @ Toledo
70.24 Iowa
69.75 Maryland
69.49 @ Texas Tech
69.42 Texas
69.41 Oklahoma State
69.15 Northern Iowa
68
67.84 Pitt___________________________^Top-75 equivalent
67.24 @ Indiana
66
65
64
63
62.61 Illinois____________________________^Top-100 equivalent
61
60
59.3 Purdue
58
57
56
55.32 Kansas
54
53
52
_______________________________________^Top-150 equivalent
51
50
49 North Texas
So here is a list of Iowa State and Iowa's opponent's power rankings adjusted for home field advantage. All are based on last year's final rankings, with the exception of Iowa State.
For Iowa State, for sake of argument, I rated them at the power ranking that puts them just above the six teams they need to win to become bowl eligible.
Make note though, that is not the same thing as saying that they have 50-50 chance at six wins. Indeed, that is a quite a bit higher. That's a discussion for another day.
This little exercise is primarily to show the disparity between a team that has a top-10 strength of schedule, and one of our other P-5 non-conference foes who doesn't, and why it is relevant.
Iowa State in bold.
The key issue that I am trying to make is to identify for each team their "virtual unwinnable" games, "virtual win" games, and the remainder that are toss-up games.
These parameters will do well to identity each team's most possible wins, least possible wins.. and the high-low for most likely win range for the season.
Feel free decide yourself where Iowa State lies in the power ratings (made easy by noting ranking range).... go down the list.....and identify them yourself what the win range for each team is.
And if you wish, feel free to adjust any and all teams up or down from last year's final ranking.
Just remember...toss-up games almost always result in being split roughly 50-50 in real play. Anything within about 6 points is essentially a toss-up game.
Here goes and have fun! Feel free to post your own predicted record........
96.61 TCU
95
94
93.62 @ Baylor
92
91
90
89
88__________________________^ Top-10 equivalent
87.44 @ Kansas State
86
85
84.48 @ Oklahoma
84.02 @ Nebraska
83.89 @ Wisconsin__________________________^ Top-25 equivalent
81.81 @ West Virginia
80
79
78.
77
76__________________________^ Top-40 equivalent
75
74
73.50 @ Iowa State
73.35 Minnesota
72.34 @ Northwestern__________________________^Top-50 equivalent
72.14 Illinois State
71.05 @ Toledo
70.24 Iowa
69.75 Maryland
69.49 @ Texas Tech
69.42 Texas
69.41 Oklahoma State
69.15 Northern Iowa
68
67.84 Pitt___________________________^Top-75 equivalent
67.24 @ Indiana
66
65
64
63
62.61 Illinois____________________________^Top-100 equivalent
61
60
59.3 Purdue
58
57
56
55.32 Kansas
54
53
52
_______________________________________^Top-150 equivalent
51
50
49 North Texas
