I took a look at how the conference race could project out based on what we know at this time. And WOW, is about as impossible to call as you could get.
Simply put there are five teams in the conference that appear to be running neck and neck for 2nd place in the conference, and all five of those teams appear to be power ranked between about 15th and 30th. That is a range that is separated by no more than a field goal, and a margin of error that is large than that.
OK, here is how the Cygarin Ratings see the over/under for projected wins for each team in the conference right now.....
7.1 TEXAS
6.9 OKLAHOMA
5.8 WEST VIRGINIA
5.5 IOWA STATE
4.2 TCU
4.1 TEXAS TECH
3.4 BAYLOR
2.9 KANSAS STATE
2.7 OKLAHOMA STATE
0.8 KANSAS
Here is how it would look assuming Iowa State beats Texas Tech, not altering how the other games may actually play out over the next two weeks.....
Simply put there are five teams in the conference that appear to be running neck and neck for 2nd place in the conference, and all five of those teams appear to be power ranked between about 15th and 30th. That is a range that is separated by no more than a field goal, and a margin of error that is large than that.
OK, here is how the Cygarin Ratings see the over/under for projected wins for each team in the conference right now.....
7.1 TEXAS
6.9 OKLAHOMA
5.8 WEST VIRGINIA
5.5 IOWA STATE
4.2 TCU
4.1 TEXAS TECH
3.4 BAYLOR
2.9 KANSAS STATE
2.7 OKLAHOMA STATE
0.8 KANSAS
Here is how it would look assuming Iowa State beats Texas Tech, not altering how the other games may actually play out over the next two weeks.....
7.9 TEXAS
6.9 OKLAHOMA
6.3 IOWA STATE
5.8 WEST VIRGINIA
4.6 TCU
4.2 TEXAS TECH
3.4 BAYLOR
2.9 KANSAS STATE
2.7 OKLAHOMA STATE
0.8 KANSAS
Lastly, here is how it would look if you assume Iowa State beats Texas Tech AND Texas, again, not altering how things may play out over the next several weeks before we playTexas....
6.9 OKLAHOMA
6.5 IOWA STATE
6.5 TEXAS6.9 OKLAHOMA
6.3 IOWA STATE
5.8 WEST VIRGINIA
4.6 TCU
4.2 TEXAS TECH
3.4 BAYLOR
2.9 KANSAS STATE
2.7 OKLAHOMA STATE
0.8 KANSAS
Lastly, here is how it would look if you assume Iowa State beats Texas Tech AND Texas, again, not altering how things may play out over the next several weeks before we playTexas....
6.9 OKLAHOMA
6.5 IOWA STATE
5.8 WEST VIRGINIA
4.6 TCU
4.2 TEXAS TECH
3.4 BAYLOR
2.9 KANSAS STATE
2.7 OKLAHOMA STATE
0.8 KANSAS
Clearly, Texas Tech and Texas are our hardest games remaining. We should be slight favorites against Texas Tech at home, and slight underdogs to Texas on the road.
Basically it comes down to this...Iowa State must almost assuredly beat both Texas Tech and Texas to make the Championship game, and of course win out. But, Iowa State should be double-digit favorites against everyone else other than Texas Tech and Texas.
It is worth reiterating that Iowa State has played BY FAR the toughest schedule to date, and the other conference contenders still have to go through the gauntlet that Iowa State has already faced that has put two games in our loss column.
But the probability numbers suggest that everybody in the conference could end up with two losses, and Iowa State just got theirs earlier than the rest of the contenders. The questions are.....can we win out with the more favorable schedule remaining? And will the others lose with the less favorable schedules remaining?
Right now, Oklahoma is still at the top of the power rating hill, but just how accurate that is, is hard to say. I think pretty good, but they are indeed suffering from having a bad defense.
A quick analysis suggests that Texas is exactly who their ratings say they are (about 17th), and Oklahoma simply screwed the pooch and lost one they shouldn't have. Thus, I still see Oklahoma to be the team most likely to win the conference.
After Oklahoma, I have Texas, Iowa State, West Virginia, TCU, and Texas Tech as being in a power rating dead heat. On a neutral field, as already noted above, there wouldn't be a single team that would be more than a field goal favorite over any other. But home field advantage is going to play a huge factor in outcomes of conference play.
Texas is clearly in the driver's seat for second place by a game... by virtue of their upset win over Oklahoma. But, by no means would I say that Texas is the clear-cut "second best" team in the conference yet. And they still have THEIR gauntlet of schedule facing them....@ West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, and Iowa State at home.
Though Iowa State appears to having a handicap for the conference race due to having two losses, that is probably misleading. Iowa State's position is more analogous to "appearing" to be behind due to starting in the inside lane on an oval track....but it is the other teams that NOW have the greater distance to make up before the finish line.
Right now, it is neck and neck between five teams for second place in the conference, and probability-wise......Iowa State is very much one of those teams.
I don't think I would call it too far off to suggest that that Iowa State and the four other teams all have about 20% chance.... +/- 5% each......of making the Conference Championship game. And each week, that is going to get whittled down to less teams.
To be fair, Iowa State's (and TCU's) two losses are real, whereby the other team's two losses are hypothetical. That means that there is chance that one or more of the three other teams can still beat the odds, and end up with one or less losses.
(In my opinion.)
More later this week looking at Iowa State.
4.6 TCU
4.2 TEXAS TECH
3.4 BAYLOR
2.9 KANSAS STATE
2.7 OKLAHOMA STATE
0.8 KANSAS
Clearly, Texas Tech and Texas are our hardest games remaining. We should be slight favorites against Texas Tech at home, and slight underdogs to Texas on the road.
Basically it comes down to this...Iowa State must almost assuredly beat both Texas Tech and Texas to make the Championship game, and of course win out. But, Iowa State should be double-digit favorites against everyone else other than Texas Tech and Texas.
It is worth reiterating that Iowa State has played BY FAR the toughest schedule to date, and the other conference contenders still have to go through the gauntlet that Iowa State has already faced that has put two games in our loss column.
But the probability numbers suggest that everybody in the conference could end up with two losses, and Iowa State just got theirs earlier than the rest of the contenders. The questions are.....can we win out with the more favorable schedule remaining? And will the others lose with the less favorable schedules remaining?
Right now, Oklahoma is still at the top of the power rating hill, but just how accurate that is, is hard to say. I think pretty good, but they are indeed suffering from having a bad defense.
A quick analysis suggests that Texas is exactly who their ratings say they are (about 17th), and Oklahoma simply screwed the pooch and lost one they shouldn't have. Thus, I still see Oklahoma to be the team most likely to win the conference.
After Oklahoma, I have Texas, Iowa State, West Virginia, TCU, and Texas Tech as being in a power rating dead heat. On a neutral field, as already noted above, there wouldn't be a single team that would be more than a field goal favorite over any other. But home field advantage is going to play a huge factor in outcomes of conference play.
Texas is clearly in the driver's seat for second place by a game... by virtue of their upset win over Oklahoma. But, by no means would I say that Texas is the clear-cut "second best" team in the conference yet. And they still have THEIR gauntlet of schedule facing them....@ West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, and Iowa State at home.
Though Iowa State appears to having a handicap for the conference race due to having two losses, that is probably misleading. Iowa State's position is more analogous to "appearing" to be behind due to starting in the inside lane on an oval track....but it is the other teams that NOW have the greater distance to make up before the finish line.
Right now, it is neck and neck between five teams for second place in the conference, and probability-wise......Iowa State is very much one of those teams.
I don't think I would call it too far off to suggest that that Iowa State and the four other teams all have about 20% chance.... +/- 5% each......of making the Conference Championship game. And each week, that is going to get whittled down to less teams.
To be fair, Iowa State's (and TCU's) two losses are real, whereby the other team's two losses are hypothetical. That means that there is chance that one or more of the three other teams can still beat the odds, and end up with one or less losses.
(In my opinion.)
More later this week looking at Iowa State.
