Someone a while back posted the 2016 football schedule in order of difficulty. It was very eye opening, but I couldn't find that post. However I did find the ESPN FPI page and have sorted the schedule by order of difficulty using their percentage change of winning each game. If things went per the FPI, we would finish with a 4-8 record. But that's not the worst of the story. Throw out the Texas Tech game where we only have 42.6% chance to win and none of the remaining 7 give us a better than 25% chance of winning.
Beating UNI is absolutely critical this year as it is every year we play them. But if we want a chance at a bowl game, we really need to start by beating Iowa. Then we will need to win 2 of 3 against Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia.
I'm excited about the new staff, but it's hard to get too excited when you realize the challenge they will face. It's even more of a challenge when you realize where we currently are with the offensive line.
Here is the schedule sorted by order of difficulty per the ESPN FPI showing the probability of victory:
Sat, Sept 3 Northern Iowa 78.1%
Sat, Nov 12 @ Kansas 74.1%
Sat, Sept 24 San José State 65.3%
Sat, Oct 29 Kansas State 54.2%
Sat, Nov 19 Texas Tech 42.5%
Sat, Nov 26 West Virginia 23.6%
Sat, Sept 10 @ Iowa 20.5%
Sat, Oct 1 Baylor 17.6%
Sat, Sept 17 @ TCU 16.4%
Sat, Oct 15 @ Texas 14.6%
Sat, Oct 8 @ Oklahoma State 8.0%
Thu, Nov 3 Oklahoma 6.9%
Beating UNI is absolutely critical this year as it is every year we play them. But if we want a chance at a bowl game, we really need to start by beating Iowa. Then we will need to win 2 of 3 against Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia.
I'm excited about the new staff, but it's hard to get too excited when you realize the challenge they will face. It's even more of a challenge when you realize where we currently are with the offensive line.
Here is the schedule sorted by order of difficulty per the ESPN FPI showing the probability of victory:
Sat, Sept 3 Northern Iowa 78.1%
Sat, Nov 12 @ Kansas 74.1%
Sat, Sept 24 San José State 65.3%
Sat, Oct 29 Kansas State 54.2%
Sat, Nov 19 Texas Tech 42.5%
Sat, Nov 26 West Virginia 23.6%
Sat, Sept 10 @ Iowa 20.5%
Sat, Oct 1 Baylor 17.6%
Sat, Sept 17 @ TCU 16.4%
Sat, Oct 15 @ Texas 14.6%
Sat, Oct 8 @ Oklahoma State 8.0%
Thu, Nov 3 Oklahoma 6.9%
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